2012 Prognostications

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2011 Stock Pick Recap

How did the 2011 picks do?
In a word, disastrous. Worst showing since 2008.

2011                    
Picks Ticker 12/31/2010 12/31/2011 2011%   Indices Ticker 12/31/2010 12/31/2011 2011%
Bank of America BAC 13.34 5.56 -58%   NYSE ^NYA 7,964.02 7,477.03 -6%
Wells Fargo WFC 30.99 27.56 -11%   DJIA ^DJI 11,577.51 12,217.56 6%
Citibank C 47.26 26.31 -44%   S&P 500 ^GSPC 1,257.64 1,257.60 0%
BP BP 44.17 42.74 -3%   Nasdaq ^IXIC 2,652.87 2,605.15 -2%
Dell DELL 13.55 14.63 8%     Total 21,008.58 23,452.04 12%
Yahoo YHOO 16.63 16.13 -3%            
Sony SNE 35.71 18.04 -49%            
Total 201.65 150.97 -25%            

Here's the historical performance of the "prognostication picks".

2010                    
Picks Ticker 12/31/2009 12/31/2010 2010%   Indices Ticker 12/31/2009 12/31/2010 2010%
Apollo Group  APOL 60.58 39.49 -35%   NYSE ^NYA 7,184.96 7,964.02 11%
DeVry Inc DV 56.73 47.98 -15%   DJIA ^DJI 10,428.05 11,577.51 11%
ITT Educat Svcs ESI 95.96 63.69 -34%   S&P 500 ^GSPC 1,126.42 1,257.64 12%
Comcast CMCSA 16.86 21.97 30%   Nasdaq ^IXIC 2,269.15 2,652.87 17%
Etrade ETFC 17.60 16.00 -9%     Total 21,008.58 23,452.04 11.6%
China Mobile CHL 46.43 49.62 7%            
Apple AAPL 211.64 322.56 52%            
Yahoo! YHOO 16.78 16.63 -1%            
ADM ADM 31.31 30.08 -4%            
Radio Shack RSH 19.50 18.49 -5%            
Irobot IRBT 17.60 24.88 41%            
Hanger HGR 13.83 21.19 53%            
Total 604.82  $    672.58 11.2%            
2009                    
Picks Ticker 1/2/2009 12/31/2009 2009%   Indices Ticker 1/2/2009 12/31/2009 2009%
Campbell Soup CPB 30.43 33.8 11.1%   NYSE ^NYA 5,915.73 7,184.96 21.46%
Walmart WMT 57.18 53.45 -6.5%   DJIA ^DJI 9,034.69 10,428.05 15.42%
Phillip Morris PM 44.12 48.19 9.2%   S&P 500 ^GSPC 931.80 1,126.42 20.89%
Altria Group MO 15.2 19.63 29.1%   Nasdaq ^IXIC 1,632.21 2,269.15 39.02%
Procter & Gamble PG 62.8 60.63 -3.5%     Total 17,514.43 21,008.58 19.95%
Gap, Inc GPS 14.07 20.95 48.9%            
Tootsie Roll TR 25.77 27.38 6.2%            
Winnebago WGO 6.32 12.2 93.0%            
Yahoo YHOO 12.85 16.78 30.6%            
Google GOOG 321.32 619.98 92.9%            
S&P index SPY 92.96 111.44 19.9%            
Chipolte Mex Grill CMG 64.14 88.16 37.4%            
McDonalds MCD 63.75 62.44 -2.1%            
Nintendo NTDOY.PK 48 29.82 -37.9%            
Hasbro HAS 29.6 32.06 8.3%            
Total 888.51 1236.91 39.21%            
    Avg return 24.42%            
2008                    
Picks Ticker 1/2/2008 12/31/2008 2008%   Indices Ticker 1/2/2008 12/31/2008 2008%
AT & T T 41  $       28.50 -30.5%   NYSE ^NYA 7,753.95 5,757.05 -25.75%
Comcast CMCSA 17.7  $       16.88 -4.6%   DJIA ^DJI 10,717.50 8,776.39 -18.11%
Tootsie Roll TR 26.33  $       25.61 -2.7%   S&P 500 ^GSPC 1,248.29 903.25 -27.64%
Plantronics PLT 25.4  $       13.20 -48.0%   Nasdaq ^IXIC 2,205.32 1,577.03 -28.49%
Tata Motors TTM 19.45  $         4.45 -77.1%     Total 21,925.06 17,013.72 -22.40%
Electronic Arts ERTS 56.76  $       16.04 -71.7%            
Rainmaker RMKR 6.12  $         0.85 -86.1%            
Philips PHG 42.34  $       19.87 -53.1%            
Johnson Controls JCI 34.59  $       18.16 -47.5%            
Etrade ETFC 3.43  $         1.15 -66.5%            
Chinindia ETF FNI 27.37  $       11.60 -57.6%            
Makita MKTAY 41.95  $       22.18 -47.1%            
Total 342.44  $      178.49 -47.9%            
    Avg return -43.7%            
2007                    
Picks Ticker 12/29/2006 12/31/2007 2007%   Indices   12/29/2006 12/31/2007 2006%
Microsoft MSFT  $       29.86   $       35.60  19.2%   NYSE ^NYA  $  9,139.02   $  9,740.32  6.58%
Nintendo NTDOY.PK  $       32.50   $       74.05  127.8%   DJIA ^DJI  $12,463.15   $13,264.82  6.43%
Toyota TM  $     134.31   $     106.17  -21.0%   S&P 500 ^GSPC  $  1,418.30   $  1,468.36  3.53%
Google GOOG  $     460.48   $     691.48  50.2%   Nasdaq ^IXIC  $  2,415.29   $  2,652.28  9.81%
Yahoo YHOO  $       25.54   $       23.26  -8.9%     Total 25,435.76 27,125.78 6.64%
Cummins CMI  $       59.09   $     127.37  115.6%            
Caterpillar CAT  $       61.33   $       72.56  18.3%            
Dell DELL  $       25.06   $       24.51  -2.2%            
China ETF FXI  $     111.45   $     170.45  52.9%            
Korea ETF EWY  $       49.40   $       64.70  31.0%            
Brazil ETF EWZ  $       46.85   $       80.70  72.3%            
India ETF INP  $       52.45   $       97.79  86.4%            
Total  $  1,088.32   $  1,568.64  44.1%            
    Avg return 45.1%            
2006                    
Picks Ticker 12/30/2005 12/29/2006 2006%   Indices   12/30/2005 12/29/2006 2006%
Cisco  CSCO   $       17.12  27.33 60%   NYSE ^NYA 7,753.95 9,139.02 17.90%
Honda HMC  $       28.97  39.54 36%   DJIA ^DJI 10,717.50 12,463.15 16.30%
Infosys  INFY   $       40.43  54.56 35%   S&P 500 ^GSPC 1,248.29 1,418.30 13.60%
Toyota  TM   $     104.62  134.31 28%   Nasdaq ^IXIC 2,205.32 2,415.29 9.50%
Apple  AAPL   $       71.89  84.84 18%     Total 21,925.06 25,435.76 16.01%
Google GOOG  $     414.86  460.48 11%            
Walmart WMT  $       46.80  46.18 -1%            
Ford F  $         7.72  7.51 -3%            
Motorola  MOT   $       22.56  20.56 -9%            
Yahoo YHOO  $       39.18  25.54 -35%            
Total  $     794.15   $     900.85  13.4%            
    Avg return 22.6%            
2005                    
Picks   12/31/2004 12/30/2005 Return   Indices Ticker 12/31/2003 12/31/2004 Change
AAPL AAPL  $       32.20   $       71.89  123.3%   NYSE ^NYA 7,250.06 7,753.95 6.95%
Google GOOG  $     192.79   $     414.86  115.2%   Dow Jones ^DJI 10,783.01 10,717.50 -0.61%
Texas Instruments  TXN  $       24.62   $       32.07  30.3%   S&P500 ^GSPC 1,211.92 1,248.29 3.00%
Amazon AMZN  $       44.29   $       47.15  6.5%   NASDAQ ^IXIC 2,175.44 2,205.32 1.37%
Ask Jeeves ASKJ  $       26.75   $       28.31  5.8%     Total 21,420.43 21,925.06 2.36%
Yahoo YHOO  $       37.68   $       39.18  4.0%            
PalmOne PLMO  $       31.55   $       31.80  0.8%            
Starbucks SBUX  $       31.18   $       30.01  -3.8%            
Sprint FON  $       24.85   $       22.82  -8.2%            
Walmart WMT  $       52.82   $       46.80  -11.4%            
Sears S  $       51.03   $       43.86  -14.1%            
Research in Motion RIMM  $       82.42   $       66.01  -19.9%            
Ebay EBAY  $       58.17   $       43.22  -25.7%            
Kodak EK  $       32.25   $       23.40  -27.4%            
Ford FORD  $       14.64   $         7.72  -47.3%            
Total  $     737.24   $     949.10  155.6%            
    Avg return 8.5%            
2004                    
Picks Ticker 12/31/2003 12/31/2004 Change   Indices Ticker 12/31/2003 12/31/2004 Change
Toyota TM 68.75 81.87 19.1%   NYSE ^NYA 6,464.00 7,250.06 12.16%
Wipro WIT 15.4 24.65 60.1%   Dow Jones ^DJI 10,453.92 10,783.01 3.15%
Intel INTC 31.85 23.39 -26.6%   S&P500 ^GSPC 1,111.92 1,211.92 8.99%
Microsoft MSFT 24.48 26.72 9.2%   NASDAQ ^IXIC 2,003.37 2,175.44 8.59%
Inuit INTU 52.86 44.01 -16.7%     Total 20,033.21 21,420.43 6.92%
Adobe ADBE 39.08 62.74 60.5%            
Sina.com SINA 33.75 32.06 -5.0%            
Yahoo YHOO 22.51 37.68 67.4%            
Total 288.68 333.12 15.4%            
    Avg return 6.4%            

2011 Recap/2012 Predictions

America's "greatness" continues to erode as the world economy redistributes the balance of power. The shock of the economic downturn has left lasting impressions; look around and you'll see it's still tough to find a new job. Folks will continue to be more frugal. In the short term, if Obama wants to stimulate the economy and generate jobs, he'll penalize companies for outsourcing jobs overseas and place tariffs on imports.

Well, this certainly played out. Obama was the hero we were looking for but Americans seem too lazy and self-entitled to create change on their own. Worse still is the republican candidates for the next election. Mediocrity at best. America, a victim of it's own success, is quickly becoming less important in the world economy. Where will the next "boom" come from?

Two